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Why are we not widely using prior elicitation? We analyze the state of the art by identifying a range of key aspects of prior knowledge elicitation, from properties of the modelling task and the nature of the priors to the form of interaction with the expert.
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We even lack a comprehensive theoretical framework for understanding different facets of the prior elicitation problem. We lack elicitation methods that integrate well into the Bayesian workflow and perform elicitation efficiently in terms of costs of time and effort. In practice, however, we are still fairly far from having usable prior elicitation tools that could significantly influence the way we build probabilistic models in academia and industry. Prior elicitation transforms domain knowledge of various kinds into well-defined prior distributions, and offers a solution to the prior specification problem, in principle. Specification of the prior distribution for a Bayesian model is a central part of the Bayesian workflow for data analysis, but it is often difficult even for statistical experts. Martin, Suyog Chandramouli, Marcelo Hartmann, Oriol Abril Pla, Owen Thomas, Henri Pesonen, Jukka Corander, Aki Vehtari, Samuel Kaski, Paul-Christian Bürkner, and Arto Klami write Posted in Statistical computing | 4 Replies Prior knowledge elicitation: The past, present, and future From 9 to 5 you’re working on building a machine to blow up the world, then it’s time to go home and chill. ” It’s like something out of Veronica Geng. all while helping to create the atomic bomb. I love that the Watchmen are more famous than the actual Manhattan Project.Īnyway, though, this adorable “warmhearted story.
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Le Projet Manhattan a inspiré des films, des séries télévisées et même des personnages de bandes dessinées (cf. Stan deals with the difficult losses of family and friends all while helping to create the hydrogen bomb and the first computer.Īlso this review which was amusing in explaining the importance of the Manhattan project in this way: The warmhearted story of Polish immigrant and mathematician Stan Ulam, who moved to the U.S. I was curious so I googled and found this inadvertently hilarious blurb: Knowing that I’m a fan of Stanislaw Ulam, X pointed me to an announcement of a recent movie, Les Aventures d’un Mathématicien, par Thor Klein.